For those of us in DC, the speculation of who the VP candidates will be this fall is ever-present. It seems that every day a new name joins the mix, or another name falls off the infamous short-list. Countless reporters speculate on which senators, represenatives, or governors will be chosen, and those politicians in turn remove their name from the running or suggest they might be interested in the job, if asked (which they are...a lot).
A recent poll shared by Ron Faucheux, president of the Clarus Research Group (and a former staff member at AIA National as well as respected political forecaster), surveyed Americans on what qualities they would like in a VP candidate. What did they say?
Republican voters and those independent voters who lean Republican where asked:As you know, John McCain has won enough delegates to be the Republican Nominee. Which one qualification do you think would be the most important for [the Republican vice presidential candidate] to have?
The top response was “someone who is a strong conservative on social and economic issues,” which garnered 27 percent of responses. Sixteen percent stated that someone with experience dealing with the economy was the key qualification, while someone who would appeal to moderate independent voters only garnered five percent.
Democratic voters and Democrat-leaning independent voters were asked the same question for nominee Barack Obama’s VP choice.
The top response was “someone with experience dealing with the economy” at 22 percent followed by “someone with military and foreign policy experience” at 21 percent. Appeal to Hillary Clinton supporters garnered 13 percent of responses, while “someone who would appeal to moderate independent voters” received 7 percent.
In the general election campaign, as opposed to the primaries, it is fairly common for presidential candidates to move towards the center in order to try to gain the vote of moderates and independent voters. Despite this, there are some clear differences in how these voters view a running mate's addition to the ticket. According to this poll, Republican voters are most concerned about their candidate’s stance on conservative issue and see the VP candidate as someone who can add to the conservative platform for the party. Democratic voters see the VP candidate as someone who can fill in the gaps of possible weaknesses for Obama. And it comes as no surprise that voters in both parties clearly have the economy on their mind.
As the days tick down to the national party conventions (31 days until the Democrats convene in Denver and 38 until the Republican Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul), political junkies and pundits alike, and for the first time in a long time, many voters, are sitting on the edge of their seats waiting for the announcements. Rumors have been swirling for days that McCain's choice could be announced as early as this week, though the campaign has not confirmed this.
Just who are the VP front runners? NYTimes "Election 2008 Guide" speculates on each candidate's shortlist. Rumored Democratic VP choices include Hillary Clinton (though this is probably unlikely), Senators Evan Bayh and Joe Biden (himself a former presidential candidate), and governors Kathleen Sebelius, Tim Kaine, and Bill Richardson (yet another former Obama opponent). Senator Chuck Hagel (a Republican!) has even been rumored to be on the list, as well as past VP candidate and former Senator John Edwards.
For McCain, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is one of the most-mentioned choices, as well as former McCain opponents Mitt Romney (who could deliver with his economic success) and Mike Huckabee (who can offer his strong ties to the heartland). Senators Lindsay Graham and John Thune are likely on the list, as well as former Democratic VP nominee Joseph Liebermann, who is now an Independent.
The outcome is anyone's guess at this point. Each short-list name brings clear electoral benefits to the respective candidate, but can McCain and Obama picture working side-by-side for four, maybe eight, years with these people? Though we would all like to be put out of our misery and learn whose names and faces we will see in countless TV ads and on campaign propaganda, there is a little something to be said for waiting and finding out during the conventions. There are so few surprises left in life, why not one more?
Who do you think the candidates will choose, and why?